Omar Al-Bashir has taken his first trip abroad to Eritrea. It is yet to be seen if he will take the longer trip to Qatar to attend the Arab League summit in Doha. It seemed as though he would have used the recent religious ruling to stay put in the Presidential Palace on the banks of the Nile, but he wanted to send another small slap to the ICC and its supporters. It is this arrogant attitude that, I think, will eventually lead to his arrest. 
Showing posts with label Al-Bashir. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Al-Bashir. Show all posts
Posted by
Kuku
on
2:25 AM
Labels:
Al-Bashir,
ICC,
Sudan,
United Nations
Check out this clip from Aljazaeera English. It chronicles the story of a Sudanese living in New York and his support of the ICC on the day the arrest warrant was announced.
At about 1:30 in the clip, you can see the clashes between the Bashir and ICC supporters. It is quite embarrassing that the supporters of al-Bashir resort to violence, as the ICC supporters seemed to be protesting peacefully, until one man, starts a scuffle. Obviously the film doesn't tell the whole story, but I thought it was very interesting.
Here it is:
Posted by
Kuku
on
11:37 AM
Labels:
Al-Bashir,
Darfur,
Darfur Rebels,
ICC,
Khartoum,
south sudan,
Sudan
The International Criminal Court has finally issued its long awaited arrest warrant for the Sudanese President, Omar al-Bashir.
Source: SudanTribune
I'll get right down to my analysis...
The first thing that I noticed was the fact that the Court only charged him on two of three accusations, war crimes and crimes against humanity. The prosecutor did not get his third request for the crime of genocide. This is very telling. Both the first two crimes can be very easily proven and linked back to Al-Bashir, however, the third accusation (of genocide) cannot be as easily proven or linked back to the President.
Could this be seen as vindication for the Sudanese government and the President as to their claim that genocide is not taking place in Darfur?
I say yes! The mere fact that the prosecutor failed to prove to the judges that Al-Bashir should be arrested for genocide means that they could not prove (from the evidence provided by the prosecutor) that if genocide did occur, the President is responsible. This will be seen as a signal by the government as the inability of the ICC to prove genocide, and automatically claim that it is not taking place. The Justice Minister of Sudan claimed that this failure is proof of the weakness of the case against the President. This is more in line with the view held by the UN, which has yet to label the conflict genocide.
Also, the 'Save Darfur' crowd in the United States cannot be happier. In fact, they are using this opportunity to raise funds, as if this arrest warrant is all due to their so-called "advocacy." This is a snapshot of their website's home page taken after the arrest warrant was issued.
Along with most Sudanese I know, I am very critical of Save Darfur (et al.). They have been the strongest proponents of intervention in Sudan, something which will undoubtably exacerbate the situation for the worse. But I'll leave that for a later time.
The reaction in Khartoum by the government was almost instantaneous. After speaking with some relatives in Sudan, the situation seems normal and as one of my cousins put it, 'business is as usual.' People were expecting there to be a coordinated attack by the Darfuri rebel group Justice and Equality Movement , similar to the one that occurred back in May 2008. People also expected for general violence to breakout, but none of the sort has happened. That being said, people are very tense on the ground and anxious for what is to come. I think people are worried most about the implications on the North-South peace agreement (CPA) and the reaction of the southern government. Here are the positions of Sudanese most prominent political parties. Also, the government has kicked out several international NGOs, among them are OXFAM, Care, and Doctors without Borders.
Here is a clip of the scenes from Khartoum today:
Also, most government employees in Khartoum (I have been told) were given Wednesday off of work and were encouraged to attend the "maseera" (rally or protest) taking place. Tomorrow, they expect to hold a 'million man march' in support of the President. This event will, per Sudanese tradition, are filled with pomp, officials screaming at the top of their lungs, music, dancing and more music.
The implications of this arrest warrant will be greatest on the President himself. According to Ocampo, the Chief Prosecutor of the ICC, even if Al-Bashir travels to friendly countries, his plane could be "intercepted" and he could be flown to the Hague. This is will effectively limit the President to remaining within the borders of the country, the only place where he is safe from arrest. This is reminiscent of reports a while back of the ICC attempting to intercept the airplane carrying another Sudanese official wanted by the ICC when he attempted to fly for Hajj in Mecca.
Finally, the implications of this move by the ICC for all of Sudan will have negative effects. It will further isolate Sudan and fortify its pariah status in the international stage. The move will make it almost impossible for the President to conduct official business as a wanted head of state. The best solution would have been to allow the government to save face and come to an agreement. This decision has come at a time when the government and the JEM signed an agreement, which has now been put in doubt.
"All the perfume of Arabia will not clear the dirt" created by the arrest warrant. - Abdel-Mahmood Abdel-Haleem, Sudan's Ambassador to the United Nations.
Posted by
Kuku
on
7:01 PM
Labels:
Al-Bashir,
Darfur,
Doha Peace Talks,
ICC,
JEM,
Khalil Ibrahim,
Sudan,
United Nations
The arrest warrant against the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir seems to be imminent. The New York Times is reporting that the arrest warrant has been approved - but it seems the ICC is keeping it underraps as per this SudanTribune article. This could be a ploy by the ICC to keep the arrest warrant a secret, allowing them to arrest the President if he decides to go abroad and visit one of the member states of the Rome Statute, the agreement that created the court, without having publicly announced the arrest warrant. Or, they can simply still be in the process of working out the final details. Only time will tell. All the while, 'negotiations' between the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the government are taking place in Doha, Qatar.
No one knows what (if any) tangible effects this arrest warrant will have on the peace talks and the situation in Sudan as a whole. Some, like Alex de Waal believe this could lead to a very dangerous situation.
In my opinion, the effects of this indictment are going to be very serious. The reality is that the Khartoum government, led by Al-Bashir, has shown very little commitment to the peace process in Darfur and has been lagging on the implementation of the CPA. The indictment could have been postponed for a renewable one year period, under the behest of the UN Security Council. This possibility of postponing the arrest warrant (which is all but gone now) was the only incentive pushing the government to sit down with the same group that brazenly attacked Omdurman only last year. Without this incentive, the government will feel hemmed in even more and have no impetus to take serious action.
Also, this arrest warrant has emboldened the rebels and given them more clout, especially for the ongoing negotiations in Doha. This is evident by the recent defiant warning by Khalil Ibrahim, the leader of the JEM, who claimed that if Al-Bashir does not hand himself over to the Hague-based court, the rebel group will arrest him personally and hand him over. This is obvious posturing and is very unhelpful, further isolating the hope for peace.
If the arrest warrant goes ahead and is publicly announced, this will be a major setback for the NCP and could be the crippling blow many of the regime's enemies have been waiting for. It could set in motion a series of domino effects that could lead to the unravelling of the CPA, the further inflaming of the war in Darfur and the eventual breakup of the entire country. This is a very bleak outlook, but, it is unfortunately very plausible.
Best quote in the world:
"While the Sudanese presidential advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail told the press that Sudan was ready to receive and host two thousand Palestinian refugees in the area of Soba in Khartoum State. He said all services including water, electricity and transportation have been provided in the area. He stressed that the Palestinian refugees would be treated on equal footing as the Sudanese subjects in all service domains."
I am seriously insulted! I dare him to go and say that out in Soba itself, or Mayo or Jebel Awliya where tens of thousands of Sudanese "citizens" are living in conditions not fit for animals. This is utterly despicable and should be stopped. But I know that the Sudanese cabal will find someway of spinning this and making the people accept it.
When did they even manage to connect the area with electricity and water? The people in the IDPs camps have been there for more than 20 years and the government doesn't even give a crap. Too bad they're just too black or kuffar for the government to give a crap (I know that seems too simple, but ask any of the people living in these camps, and that is what they'll tell you the reasons for their living standards are).
What's next? Free (higher) education and satellite dishes for all?
Posted by
Kuku
on
8:12 AM
Labels:
Ahmadinejad,
Al-Bashir,
Chavez,
Iran,
NCP,
south sudan,
SPLA,
Sudan,
Venezuela
Wonderful!! Our government is getting very cozy with our brethren in the Islamic Republic. I know we're trying to stand with them as they are being cornered by the international community as they are another pious Muslim nation trying to evade the dominance of the western infidels (or is it they are standing with us?)!!
This is somewhat reminiscent of the 1991 fiasco with Saddam, when the then 2 year old regime wanted to find someone to stand by -- and they chose the side that would end up fighting the US under UN mandate. It is very bewildering sometimes to see the alliances being waged by the Sudanese government (or more correctly the NCP). One day they want to better their relationship with the US government (take a step in the right direction) and another they are paranoid their base will shift away and go to their Islamic brothers in the Arab world (Hamas et al.).
These absolutely ridiculous alliances with states such as Iran should end, but for some reason, I have a feeling that our foreign policy is still being controlled solely by the NCP and is not jointly decided between the "unity government" "partners". I am somewhat disappointed in the SPLM as they have not taken a more important role in national foreign policy and focused only the relationship between the GoSS and other nations (namely the US). If they were to only actually propagate their role as national leaders maybe they can change things a bit.
Chaves, Ahmadinejad and Al-Bashir
Also, read this one and a half old piece in the NY Times: "Voices of Discontent: Anti-U.S. Leaders Seek Allies." Too bad, unlike Chavez with his leftist agenda, the Sudanese government (I mean NCP) has very few governments out there they can align themselves with.
Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir appointed Musa Hilal, Janjaweed leader and NCP mercenary as a special advisor. Read more...
Huh??? Advisor to the Ministry of Federal Government? What is the Ministry of Federal Government? Al-Bashir is seeking advice from who??? This must be another joke!
+
=
America
Well, advisory positions are almost always ceremonial (barring a few exceptions), and I doubt al-Bashir needs the advice of a tribal leader who's been implicated on several different occasions to mass-murder. This (in my opinion) is most likely just another ploy to piss off the international community (US and the like) by literally saying "F**K YOU." Excuse my language but this is the best phrase to use in this situation.
Al-Bashir and his party have been cornered and now he's moving towards symbolic gestures, instead of swearing he'll divorce his wife if international troops are sent to darfur, which just happened.
The sitcom continues...
UPDATE--
There might actually be a strategic reason for Al-Bashir's appoint of Hilal as special advisor. According to Alex De Waal, the Arab mutiny against the Khartoum regime might even be spreading to the highest ranks of the Janjaweed, Hilal himself.
It’s more than a minor detail that some of the fiercest fighting of the last few months has involved the government fighting against mutinous Arab militias. It’s harder to argue the case for an ongoing Arab genocidal intent when some of the biggest Janjaweed commanders — including Mohamed Hamdan Hemeti and Musa Hilal — are flirting with the rebels. (Emphasis added) The question of what really is going on with the Arabs is complicated and I will explore it elsewhere. But you will agree that demonizing the Arabs as genocidaires is a pretty dangerous approach, especially at this particular juncture.)
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