Showing posts with label Darfur. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Darfur. Show all posts

Arrest Warrant is Issued for Al-Bashir!

Posted by Kuku on 11:37 AM
Labels: , , , , , ,

The International Criminal Court has finally issued its long awaited arrest warrant for the Sudanese President, Omar al-Bashir.

Source: SudanTribune

I'll get right down to my analysis...

The first thing that I noticed was the fact that the Court only charged him on two of three accusations, war crimes and crimes against humanity. The prosecutor did not get his third request for the crime of genocide. This is very telling. Both the first two crimes can be very easily proven and linked back to Al-Bashir, however, the third accusation (of genocide) cannot be as easily proven or linked back to the President.

Could this be seen as vindication for the Sudanese government and the President as to their claim that genocide is not taking place in Darfur?

I say yes! The mere fact that the prosecutor failed to prove to the judges that Al-Bashir should be arrested for genocide means that they could not prove (from the evidence provided by the prosecutor) that if genocide did occur, the President is responsible. This will be seen as a signal by the government as the inability of the ICC to prove genocide, and automatically claim that it is not taking place. The Justice Minister of Sudan claimed that this failure is proof of the weakness of the case against the President. This is more in line with the view held by the UN, which has yet to label the conflict genocide.

Also, the 'Save Darfur' crowd in the United States cannot be happier. In fact, they are using this opportunity to raise funds, as if this arrest warrant is all due to their so-called "advocacy." This is a snapshot of their website's home page taken after the arrest warrant was issued.

Along with most Sudanese I know, I am very critical of Save Darfur (et al.). They have been the strongest proponents of intervention in Sudan, something which will undoubtably exacerbate the situation for the worse. But I'll leave that for a later time.

The reaction in Khartoum by the government was almost instantaneous. After speaking with some relatives in Sudan, the situation seems normal and as one of my cousins put it, 'business is as usual.' People were expecting there to be a coordinated attack by the Darfuri rebel group Justice and Equality Movement , similar to the one that occurred back in May 2008. People also expected for general violence to breakout, but none of the sort has happened. That being said, people are very tense on the ground and anxious for what is to come. I think people are worried most about the implications on the North-South peace agreement (CPA) and the reaction of the southern government. Here are the positions of Sudanese most prominent political parties. Also, the government has kicked out several international NGOs, among them are OXFAM, Care, and Doctors without Borders.

Here is a clip of the scenes from Khartoum today:


Also, most government employees in Khartoum (I have been told) were given Wednesday off of work and were encouraged to attend the "maseera" (rally or protest) taking place. Tomorrow, they expect to hold a 'million man march' in support of the President. This event will, per Sudanese tradition, are filled with pomp, officials screaming at the top of their lungs, music, dancing and more music.

The implications of this arrest warrant will be greatest on the President himself. According to Ocampo, the Chief Prosecutor of the ICC, even if Al-Bashir travels to friendly countries, his plane could be "intercepted" and he could be flown to the Hague. This is will effectively limit the President to remaining within the borders of the country, the only place where he is safe from arrest. This is reminiscent of reports a while back of the ICC attempting to intercept the airplane carrying another Sudanese official wanted by the ICC when he attempted to fly for Hajj in Mecca.

Finally, the implications of this move by the ICC for all of Sudan will have negative effects. It will further isolate Sudan and fortify its pariah status in the international stage. The move will make it almost impossible for the President to conduct official business as a wanted head of state. The best solution would have been to allow the government to save face and come to an agreement. This decision has come at a time when the government and the JEM signed an agreement, which has now been put in doubt.


"All the perfume of Arabia will not clear the dirt" created by the arrest warrant. - Abdel-Mahmood Abdel-Haleem, Sudan's Ambassador to the United Nations.

comments (4)

Doha Agreement Reached!

Posted by Kuku on 8:12 PM
Labels: , , ,

Well, it is only an 'agreement of understanding' -- something that will lay the groundwork for peace talks that will hopefully lead to a peace agreement between both sides. Among other things, the agreement outlines a prisoner swap between the government and the Justice and Equality Movement. These prisoners would undoubtedly include those captured after the brazen JEM attack on Omdurman by the Sudanese government. One of those detained is the brother of Khalil Ibrahim, the commander of the JEM. According to AlJazeera, the prisoners would be exchanged in several batches, leading to the peace talks that would be held at a later time.


This is a very serious and positive development. For some reason, I believe these peace talks will lead to a more robust agreement, unlike the failed and moribund Abuja talks that led to the signing of the Darfur Peace Agreement. I think this will be mainly because of the location and the organizers. Holding the peace talks in Doha, Qatar, a major Arab capital, under the auspices of the Qatari government, the Arab League, African Union and the United Nations, forces the government to take the talks, and any resulting agreement, very seriously. If they renege or back away from the agreement, it will not be very convincing to claim that the mediators or the venue were not fair or unbiased. It will be much harder for them to blame the Qataris than it is for them to blame the Americans (the main architects of the DPA) for anyof the agreement's (potential) shortcomings.

Here is a two part "Inside Story" program that focuses on the Doha talks.




comments (0)

Progress in the Doha Talks!

Posted by Kuku on 10:32 PM
Labels: , , , , , ,

There has been some major progress in Doha, Qatar. The Sudanese Government, represented by Nafi Ali Nafi, held face-to-face meetings with the leadership of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), led by Khalil Ibrahim and is working on signing an 'agreement of good intentions'.

comments (0)

Al-Bashir's time is running out!

Posted by Kuku on 7:01 PM
Labels: , , , , , , ,

The arrest warrant against the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir seems to be imminent. The New York Times is reporting that the arrest warrant has been approved - but it seems the ICC is keeping it underraps as per this SudanTribune article. This could be a ploy by the ICC to keep the arrest warrant a secret, allowing them to arrest the President if he decides to go abroad and visit one of the member states of the Rome Statute, the agreement that created the court, without having publicly announced the arrest warrant. Or, they can simply still be in the process of working out the final details. Only time will tell. All the while, 'negotiations' between the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the government are taking place in Doha, Qatar. 



No one knows what (if any) tangible effects this arrest warrant will have on the peace talks and the situation in Sudan as a whole. Some, like Alex de Waal believe this could lead to a very dangerous situation. 

In my opinion, the effects of this indictment are going to be very serious. The reality is that the Khartoum government, led by Al-Bashir, has shown very little commitment to the peace process in Darfur and has been lagging on the implementation of the CPA. The indictment could have been postponed for a renewable one year period, under the behest of the UN Security Council. This possibility of postponing the arrest warrant (which is all but gone now) was the only incentive pushing the government to sit down with the same group that brazenly attacked Omdurman only last year. Without this incentive, the government will feel hemmed in even more and have no impetus to take serious action. 

Also, this arrest warrant has emboldened the rebels and given them more clout, especially for the ongoing negotiations in Doha. This is evident by the recent defiant warning by Khalil Ibrahim, the leader of the JEM, who claimed that if Al-Bashir does not hand himself over to the Hague-based court, the rebel group will arrest him personally and hand him over. This is obvious posturing and is very unhelpful, further isolating the hope for peace. 

If the arrest warrant goes ahead and is publicly announced, this will be a major setback for the NCP and could be the crippling blow many of the regime's enemies have been waiting for. It could set in motion a series of domino effects that could lead to the unravelling of the CPA, the further inflaming of the war in Darfur and the eventual breakup of the entire country. This is a very bleak outlook, but, it is unfortunately very plausible. 

comments (0)

Same tune?

Posted by Kuku on 12:20 PM
Labels: , , , , , ,

The United Nations is becoming more and more ineffective in Darfur, as the Sudanese government continues to undermine the peacekeeping operation there. Khartoum is proving its unwillingness to achieve peace. Obviously, the rebels share some of the blame for the recent escalation in violence, but it is Khartoum's responsibility to achieve peace, by agreeing to the demands of the JEM (et al.). 


Here is a video from the BBC of the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon speaking at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. 


comments (0)

Remember the displaced Palestinians?

Posted by Kuku on 10:44 PM
Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Apparently the plan to relocate the displaced Palestinian population near the Iraq-Syria border is finally coming to fruition. Reuters is covering the story here. I also wrote about this story a while back, read this and this.


According to Refugees international:
 Approximately 34,000 stateless Palestinians have lived in Iraq since 2003. Since the beginning of U.S. military operations in Iraq, many suffered persecution at the hands of the Iraqi government and other armed groups. More than 3,000 fled to the Syrian-Iraqi border, where they live in makeshift tents in the desert with limited access to basic services. Syria refuses to allow them to enter its territory and only a few have been resettled, mostly to Sweden and Chile.
I simply cannot understand the logic behind this decision. The Sudanese government (i.e. the ruling NCP) has decided it wants to help by providing pre-built shelters to these Palestinians. This is outrageous and seriously sickening. It is a slap in the face, to every Sudanese man, women and child! Not only is the NCP refusing to provide these same facilities to the citizens of the country, the rightful owners of the wealth and land, they are refusing to stop the active war against those same civilians in Darfur. They will do their best to condemn the recent Israeli offensive in Gaza while at the same time continue an arguably more brutal war under their own sovereign territory. Additionally, this government has made it clear that it does not want to pursue peace, justice, and the rule of law. 

Indeed, these Palestinians deserve a dignified resettlement. If Syria, the country most suitable to accept this displaced population, has refused to accept them, why should Sudan? There are tens of thousands of Sudanese citizens who have been forced to flee their homes and live in makeshift camps in and around the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. These people are denied their most basic rights, and are forced to live in the most humiliating circumstances. Basic amenities such as electricity, running water and sanitation are not provided.

Unfortunately, the NCP has been successful in squashing any opposition to their rule. If this happened in the pre-NCP Sudan, thousands of people would have taken to the streets and protested this action. I think the only group who is in a position to stop this great injustice is the SPLM. They supposedly share part of the power in the Government of National (dis)Unity. May must stop this resettlement process from occurring, at the highest levels of government. It is mainly their constituents  which have been forgotten and quarrel in these camps. They must make it clear to the NCP that they oppose this decision and work actively to stop it. 

Do not get me wrong, I have a lot of sympathy for the Palestinian people. However, Sudan is one of the last places where they should be resettled. It is obvious that the NCP does not care about the suffering of the Palestinians. They are only trying to convince their Arab "brethren" in Damascus, Jeddah and Cairo that they care. What they really need to do is to provide for the orphans of Mygoma, the millions displaced in Darfur, and the majority of Sudanese who live in squalor and poverty.

comments (0)

The Sudan People's Initiative

Posted by Kuku on 11:32 AM
Labels: , , ,

Recently, the Sudanese Government held a conference called The Sudan People's Initiative, under the banner of solving the Darfur conflict -- from Sudanese by Sudanese. 


The resulting document had several recommendations, most important of which was the a unilateral ceasefire agreement declared by Al-Bashir. To the untrained eye, this might have seemed to be a miraculous development in the conflict. However, it was immediately and almost unanimously dismissed by most stakeholders, including the myriad of rebel groups roaming inside and outside of Darfur. Nevertheless, there were some who saw it as an opportunity (or "A flicker of hope" as Alex de Waal put it) for some serious progress. 

Personally, I was very torn between the two camps. I wanted this so called initiative to be a true turning point. But if the past actions of the Khartoum government can tell us anything, it is that they will dishonor any agreement they sign. From the lack of implementation of the CPA to the non-implementation of the DPA and the peace agreement in the East and the infinite number of agreements signed before the CPA, this government has proven to be completely unreliable. 

The only reason this whole initiative was actually conducted and held was because of the ICC indictment against Al-Bashir. I was in Khartoum when the actual arrest warrant was submitted to the ICC. The UN went into complete crisis mode, requiring all non-essential staff to exit the country, expecting a severe and violent backlash from the government. However, that didn't happen. The government took the tactful route and tried to engage the ICC in a diplomatic manner. They pretended to, all of a sudden, genuinely care about the issues facing Darfur and the country as a whole. This reaction was a cause for cautious optimism. 

Initially, I was personally against the first indictment against a sitting head of state. I believed that it would only result in further isolating the government and retarding the peace process. But in retrospect, it seems that this indictment was the real catalyst for tangible action by Khartoum, including this People's Initiative. They wanted (and are in continual pursuit of) a deferral of the indictment. This is seemingly an impossibility as time passes. 

 The NCP has only proven that the only thing they care about is their own existence and absolutely nothing about the country they have monopolized. So I say, if it takes an arrest warrant and the further isolation of the government for more serious action, so be it. 

comments (0)

Here We Go!

Posted by Kuku on 3:30 PM
Labels: , , ,

Rebels attack Khartoum. I have alluded to this in a previous post below.


They have finally attacked Khartoum. More to come... (from the rebels)...


comments (1)

Spielberg's Out!

Posted by Kuku on 10:30 PM
Labels: , ,

Steven Spielberg, Academy Award-winning director and 'artistic consultant' for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in China has withdrawn from the games.

In a statement, he accused China of not doing enough to pressure its ally Sudan to end the "continuing human suffering" in the troubled western Darfur region. "I find that my conscience will not allow me to continue business as usual," said Mr Spielberg.

In a statement, Mr Spielberg said: "At this point, my time and energy must be spent not on Olympic ceremonies, but on doing all I can to help bring an end to the unspeakable crimes against humanity that continue to be committed in Darfur." He said: "Sudan's government bears the bulk of the responsibility for these on-going crimes but the international community, and particularly China, should be doing more."

Someone is going to get mad and I think it's going to be China! I've heard speculations about this for months now, and Spielberg has been under a lot of pressure from various groups (Save Darfur, et. al.) to take this move. Obviously Beijing is going to try to play this down, but they will be furious. This will be a major blow to their "Coming out to the World" party. It is important to keep in mind that the Chinese have been waiting for this event for a while now.
Obviously, Speilberg himself is replaceable, but is this a sign of something bigger to come? Will we see entire nations, like the US (where most of these anti-Beijing Olympics groups are from) withdraw or boycott the Games? I doubt it. Back in September of last year, Bush was invited personally by Chinese President Hu during the APEC summit to attend the Games (read about it here). I doubt Bush will personally boycott them , but he will definetely use the Games as a platform to pressure China further. But will we be seeing athletes wearing armbands, t-shirts, and other things that will 'show support' for the people of Darfur? I think so!
I don't even know about this pressuring China business. I understand that they are the main supplier of arms to Khartoum, but will this pressure, from seemingly unimportant groups really make any tangible difference? The fact of the matter is that pressure, such as this, only works against democratic governments, which are susceptible to criticism and public opinion. Obviously China is not a democracy and, although the times have changed, is still not susceptible to any sort of pressure (Tiananmen Square, anyone?)

I can't wait to here the smart things Khartoum will have to say about this.

comments (6)

Chadian Rebels Seiz Ndjamena -- Is Khartoum Next?

Posted by Kuku on 11:59 AM
Labels: , ,

Chadian rebels (allegedly, and most probably) supported by Khartoum have attacked and seized the country's capital Ndjamena. This is a disturbing development as it is important to note that most of the previous military-lead coups in Chad have been launched from Darfur, similar to this one.

This got me thinking. Why can't this happen in Sudan? Can't the rebels just drive across Kordofan and enter Khartoum, inciting some of the thousands of IDPs (read previous post) in and around Khartoum?

I am not very knowledgeable about the capabalities of the rebel groups in Darfur, but this is not impossible. The Khartoum cabal is watching what is happening to their counterparts in Ndjamena very closely (maybe because they are the masterminds behind it?) to see what the outcome will be. Deby is not very liked in Chad and has been attacked on several different occasions (in one case by some of his own family members) most notably the attack on April, 2006.

It is still unclear if the regime in Chad is able to repel this attack or will the rebels completely takeover the country. Time will tell.

"Allah-Yistoor" is all I can say right now.

comments (2)

Bashir Appoints Musa Hilal as Advisor

Posted by Kuku on 4:42 PM
Labels: , , , , , ,

Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir appointed Musa Hilal, Janjaweed leader and NCP mercenary as a special advisor. Read more...

Huh??? Advisor to the Ministry of Federal Government? What is the Ministry of Federal Government? Al-Bashir is seeking advice from who??? This must be another joke!

+

=

America

Well, advisory positions are almost always ceremonial (barring a few exceptions), and I doubt al-Bashir needs the advice of a tribal leader who's been implicated on several different occasions to mass-murder. This (in my opinion) is most likely just another ploy to piss off the international community (US and the like) by literally saying "F**K YOU." Excuse my language but this is the best phrase to use in this situation.

Al-Bashir and his party have been cornered and now he's moving towards symbolic gestures, instead of swearing he'll divorce his wife if international troops are sent to darfur, which just happened.

The sitcom continues...

UPDATE--
There might actually be a strategic reason for Al-Bashir's appoint of Hilal as special advisor. According to Alex De Waal, the Arab mutiny against the Khartoum regime might even be spreading to the highest ranks of the Janjaweed, Hilal himself.
It’s more than a minor detail that some of the fiercest fighting of the last few months has involved the government fighting against mutinous Arab militias. It’s harder to argue the case for an ongoing Arab genocidal intent when some of the biggest Janjaweed commanders — including Mohamed Hamdan Hemeti and Musa Hilal — are flirting with the rebels. (Emphasis added) The question of what really is going on with the Arabs is complicated and I will explore it elsewhere. But you will agree that demonizing the Arabs as genocidaires is a pretty dangerous approach, especially at this particular juncture.)

comments (2)

Sudan's Diplomatic Face -- UPDATE

Posted by Kuku on 10:10 AM
Labels: , , , ,

So now, according to this NYT article, the Sudanese Defense Minister admitted that the Government's armed forces were responsible for the attack on UNAMID forces, in direct contradiction of the UN Ambassador. 


VS.

Military: 1 -- 0 Diplomacy

This doesn't bode well for the UN Rep, his credibility nor the situation on the ground. It isn't the first time this happens. 

The Defense Minister, though not denying the claim that his forces were responsible for this attack, he " shares the blame" with the UNAMID forces, because they did not "announce their route." However, his ministry was cordial enough to provide an apology. According to SUNA "The Western Sudan Military Command has provided an apology to the representative of UNAMID in the region and ... the apology was accepted, in recognition of the dual mistake committed." I am glad everything was cleared up so quickly. (PLEASE!!!)

comments (2)

Sudan's Diplomatic Face

Posted by Kuku on 8:08 PM
Labels: , , ,

I was browsing the UN's website and was checking the Webcasts posted by the Security Council. They have what is call a "Media Stakeout" where representatives and UN officials are able to speak to members of the press and media. 


Here is a short clip of Sudan's Representative being question in both Arabic and English journalists today about yesterday's attack on UNAMID forces in Darfur at the UN's HQ in New York:
















The representative of Sudan is Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem Mohamed. This man is a senior Sudanese diplomat but you would not be able to tell after watching the above video. He becomes irate very quickly when he is squeezed a bit by the media, which happens often if I may add. He is very undiplomatic and seems to be excusing and denying every single claim being placed, without putting any reasonable explanation. As you can see from the above video, he dismisses the UNSC's condemnation of the attack on UNAMID Forces in Darfur (Read about it here in the NY Times), but he (correctly) is quick to point out the Security Council's lack of a statement of condemnation on a similar attack on UN forces in Lebanon. Even though the double standard is clear, he fails to put a substantive point about the situation at hand.

It is very interesting to see this man speak. He is very well versed in both Arabic and English as shown in the video. The Arab media tends to give him softball questions while the non-Arab media, usually American, gives  him a very hard time. After watching several other "media stakeouts" of other nations' representatives, it is very interesting to see how diplomacy is in action (or inaction) everyday at the United Nations. This world body is in dire need of reform. I hope to blog further about the UN at a later time. 

PS. 
If you want to see all the media stakeouts, which are usually updated daily, visit here. 

comments (0)

Peacekeepers to Darfur!!!

Posted by Kuku on 2:44 AM
Labels:

Read this!!!

AU Peacekeepers in Darfur

So is this a move in the right direction? Absolutely!

However, the "international community" i.e. the US has been focusing too much of its effort to help "resolve" this conflict on its military aspect. I see it like this, the security and humanitarian situations are the side effects of the real issues of politics, economics and the environment. The United States should however be commended on its efforts on the humanitarian front. I it is the biggest donor to the affected persons in Darfur. This conflict can only be resolved if the the international community puts equal and tangible pressure on both the government and the rebels.

Food Aid from the United States

Without regionally (or even internationally) mediated peace talks that are meant to resolve the roots of this conflict, all the efforts taken on the security and humanitarian fronts will have been wasted. It is imperative that the African Union play a pivotal role in these talks. So much is said by so many African leaders that "Africa's problems should be solved by Africans." Well, it is time for Africa and Africans to step up.

Hopefully, we will witness more positive developments on this issue.

comments (0)

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)